Hi Patrick - I read your two articles on globalization today on the TCW - well done.
There is so much to add to all of this - globalization essentially changed after WW2 with the formation of the United Nations which has been set up like a neo-monarchy to control policies of nations top down through the treaties system which the Crown governents, and the Roman Catholic Church have used for thousands of years between nations. The U.N. now just does it for all nations top down - this is where all the tyranny is coming from.
Regarding the impacts set in motion in the 1980s, which were set in motion through the oil crises in the 1970s, which were set in motion by Henry Kissinger telling the OPEC nations to jack up the prices, and the China being bought into the fray in 1971, with the world going off gold onto pure fiat USA money, thanks to Nixon and the. privately owned Federal Reserve, all of this helped to drive us into a mess which they used to nationalize everything.
But one key point coming back to the U.N. was the 1975 Lima Declaration which declared war on all western industrial sector industries, declared war on farming for SMEs, and gutted our nations to transfer it all to the developing nations, with the biggest winner being China, but we must remember the CCP is in bed with the global monopoly capitalists, the monarchies, bankers and billionaires, and the World Economic Forum was formed in 1971 to orchestrate global Monopoly Capitalism!!!!
Anyway I'll stop there - it's complicated as well. But from what I see globalization is working EXACTLY as it is designed to, which is to empower the rise and rise of global oligarchy and the world government of the United Nations, so the 1% takes 50% of it all, and their useful idiots in the top 10% take another 40% and the 90% are left to fight over the scaps of 10% and even that is being destroyed and transferred up today.
Ivan M. Paton.
p.s. Were you backpacking around Australia in 1987-1988 and spent some time in Darwin?
Your name looked familiar. Probably not. But if you were let me know.
Interesting that one of Mark Carnage's first actions was to cancel a consumer carbon tax. Maybe he might rethink the nonsense he spread about "stranded assets"
Interesting article. Not sure that tariffs are the answer or that Thatcher is the sole culprit for the UK's post war industrial demise. 'The Slow Death of British industry - A sixty year suicide 1952-2012' by Nicholas Comfort is worth a read.
The demise of the UK's steel and shipbuilding industries had a lot to do with the rise of the Japanese and Korean shipbuilding industries in the 1970s and the emergence of demand for larger cargo ships and VLCCs needed to transport crude oil around the world. The UK simply didn't have the deep water harbours or capital needed to construct the type of facilities required to build such gargantuan ships. If you visit Koje Island off the south coast of South Korea you will understand why the demise of the UK's shipbuilding industry was inevitable.
Tariffs may lead to some onshoring of US jobs but it will be a double edged sword. Analysts reckon US steel tariffs could add $40m to the cost of a Boeing 787 which would hand Airbus 85-90% of the global passenger carrier market!
As for pinning your hopes on UK defence spending - interesting that Qinetiq shares plunged 22% yesterday after warning that economic uncertainty had led to order weakness in the US for its Talon and Spur bomb disposal robots.
Trying to increase manufacturing from 10% to 15% of GDP in the US and UK are great political vote winners but incredibly difficult to achieve in practice. Can you name any post industrial country which has successfully reindustrialised itself?
Post Brexit, the UK simply isn't an attractive destination for high value add manufacturing. Amazon may invest in more warehouses in south Wales but as for global semiconductor companies? They aren't heading to south Wales (LG Semicon's fab was never built), but they (TSMC) are heading to the US (Arizona) and Germany (Dresden).
If you thought globalisation was a problem, wait until AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) arrives in a few years time. If Elon Musk has his way we'll be looking at the era of autonomous (smart truck LiDAR) HGVs pretty soon. So arduous 15 hour shifts at minimum wage will be a thing of the past you will be relieved to hear - smart HGVs will be operating 24/7 and driving transportation costs down even lower! Look at China's dark factories for the shape of things to come - very Philip. K. Dick/dystopian.
To mis-quote Norman Tebbit, it will soon be time to get back on your bike once more. Maybe you will be in Westminster by that stage as a Reform MP in south Wales. Good luck and keep up the blogging.
Much of what you say is true if you believe the global economic model works. But it doesn't.
The automation of cars is much hyped, but hasn't happened yet - not least due to the insurance issues and the problem of having a protracted period when robots are having to operate alongside humans. Musk may or may not be correct.
Your point re shipbuilding is well made and taken. AS regards deep water harbours Swansea is one of the deepest in Europe, yet noone very built a ship there.
Given the tax regime and ludicrous energy prices, noone is investing in the UK as the risk reward equation doesn't stack up. In Wales it's even worse, impact on Welsh language being a planning consideration.
I didn't say it would be easy. I do say that globalisation is not working for the majority of voters in the UK, the USA and probably many other western counties. It's not all that great for those in the Asian sweat shops either. The economic concept is not a law of physics, it's a human construct and can therefore be changed. Difficult yes, impossible no.
Rather than get on my bike I choose to question the direction of travel of the lemmings... (to mix metaphors in a way that would have detonated The Bear)
What is interesting is that when countries are measured in terms of happiness, Scandinavian countries like Finland regularly top the polls whereas the UK and the US (23rd and 24th in this year's poll) don't do so well. if you subscribe to the views of Thomas Pinketty, that has more to do with wealth distribution and the reduction in inequality than tariffs and low taxes. So even if tariffs are a short term fix for some strategic industries such as semiconductors and EVs in the US, I doubt either that blanket tariffs will work or that reindustrialisation (with a lot automated and done by robots) will necessarily lead to the upturn in economic prosperity in the UK that has been the holy grail for politicians for the best part of 75 years. Lets see how things pan out!
The Lab-Con pact are a million miles from this as the move towards re-marrying the EU, complete with the EU Commission mandated economic punishment for not following orders.
The fact HM Gov let steel fall away - by implication it was not seen as a strategic asset - is treason. Ditto for other defence activities.
Reform need to ditch the Dear Leader (Mr F) and La Tice - two paper weights who have served their purpose and are now liabilities.
Let's not have the Dear Leader total yet another political movement.
Reform did and does have the capability to make a difference.
Such common sense, intelligence and knowledge distilled here. How are you driving a truck, rather than sitting in no.11 Downing Street instead of the ideologically blind muppet currently ensconced there? 🤦🏼♀️
Hi Patrick - I read your two articles on globalization today on the TCW - well done.
There is so much to add to all of this - globalization essentially changed after WW2 with the formation of the United Nations which has been set up like a neo-monarchy to control policies of nations top down through the treaties system which the Crown governents, and the Roman Catholic Church have used for thousands of years between nations. The U.N. now just does it for all nations top down - this is where all the tyranny is coming from.
Regarding the impacts set in motion in the 1980s, which were set in motion through the oil crises in the 1970s, which were set in motion by Henry Kissinger telling the OPEC nations to jack up the prices, and the China being bought into the fray in 1971, with the world going off gold onto pure fiat USA money, thanks to Nixon and the. privately owned Federal Reserve, all of this helped to drive us into a mess which they used to nationalize everything.
But one key point coming back to the U.N. was the 1975 Lima Declaration which declared war on all western industrial sector industries, declared war on farming for SMEs, and gutted our nations to transfer it all to the developing nations, with the biggest winner being China, but we must remember the CCP is in bed with the global monopoly capitalists, the monarchies, bankers and billionaires, and the World Economic Forum was formed in 1971 to orchestrate global Monopoly Capitalism!!!!
Anyway I'll stop there - it's complicated as well. But from what I see globalization is working EXACTLY as it is designed to, which is to empower the rise and rise of global oligarchy and the world government of the United Nations, so the 1% takes 50% of it all, and their useful idiots in the top 10% take another 40% and the 90% are left to fight over the scaps of 10% and even that is being destroyed and transferred up today.
Ivan M. Paton.
p.s. Were you backpacking around Australia in 1987-1988 and spent some time in Darwin?
Your name looked familiar. Probably not. But if you were let me know.
Interesting that one of Mark Carnage's first actions was to cancel a consumer carbon tax. Maybe he might rethink the nonsense he spread about "stranded assets"
Interesting article. Not sure that tariffs are the answer or that Thatcher is the sole culprit for the UK's post war industrial demise. 'The Slow Death of British industry - A sixty year suicide 1952-2012' by Nicholas Comfort is worth a read.
The demise of the UK's steel and shipbuilding industries had a lot to do with the rise of the Japanese and Korean shipbuilding industries in the 1970s and the emergence of demand for larger cargo ships and VLCCs needed to transport crude oil around the world. The UK simply didn't have the deep water harbours or capital needed to construct the type of facilities required to build such gargantuan ships. If you visit Koje Island off the south coast of South Korea you will understand why the demise of the UK's shipbuilding industry was inevitable.
Tariffs may lead to some onshoring of US jobs but it will be a double edged sword. Analysts reckon US steel tariffs could add $40m to the cost of a Boeing 787 which would hand Airbus 85-90% of the global passenger carrier market!
As for pinning your hopes on UK defence spending - interesting that Qinetiq shares plunged 22% yesterday after warning that economic uncertainty had led to order weakness in the US for its Talon and Spur bomb disposal robots.
Trying to increase manufacturing from 10% to 15% of GDP in the US and UK are great political vote winners but incredibly difficult to achieve in practice. Can you name any post industrial country which has successfully reindustrialised itself?
Post Brexit, the UK simply isn't an attractive destination for high value add manufacturing. Amazon may invest in more warehouses in south Wales but as for global semiconductor companies? They aren't heading to south Wales (LG Semicon's fab was never built), but they (TSMC) are heading to the US (Arizona) and Germany (Dresden).
If you thought globalisation was a problem, wait until AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) arrives in a few years time. If Elon Musk has his way we'll be looking at the era of autonomous (smart truck LiDAR) HGVs pretty soon. So arduous 15 hour shifts at minimum wage will be a thing of the past you will be relieved to hear - smart HGVs will be operating 24/7 and driving transportation costs down even lower! Look at China's dark factories for the shape of things to come - very Philip. K. Dick/dystopian.
To mis-quote Norman Tebbit, it will soon be time to get back on your bike once more. Maybe you will be in Westminster by that stage as a Reform MP in south Wales. Good luck and keep up the blogging.
As an addendum worth checking out Elon's vision of the future: (date stamp today! https://x.com/i/status/1901858790384767154
Gosh - long comment, thank you.
Much of what you say is true if you believe the global economic model works. But it doesn't.
The automation of cars is much hyped, but hasn't happened yet - not least due to the insurance issues and the problem of having a protracted period when robots are having to operate alongside humans. Musk may or may not be correct.
Your point re shipbuilding is well made and taken. AS regards deep water harbours Swansea is one of the deepest in Europe, yet noone very built a ship there.
Given the tax regime and ludicrous energy prices, noone is investing in the UK as the risk reward equation doesn't stack up. In Wales it's even worse, impact on Welsh language being a planning consideration.
I didn't say it would be easy. I do say that globalisation is not working for the majority of voters in the UK, the USA and probably many other western counties. It's not all that great for those in the Asian sweat shops either. The economic concept is not a law of physics, it's a human construct and can therefore be changed. Difficult yes, impossible no.
Rather than get on my bike I choose to question the direction of travel of the lemmings... (to mix metaphors in a way that would have detonated The Bear)
What is interesting is that when countries are measured in terms of happiness, Scandinavian countries like Finland regularly top the polls whereas the UK and the US (23rd and 24th in this year's poll) don't do so well. if you subscribe to the views of Thomas Pinketty, that has more to do with wealth distribution and the reduction in inequality than tariffs and low taxes. So even if tariffs are a short term fix for some strategic industries such as semiconductors and EVs in the US, I doubt either that blanket tariffs will work or that reindustrialisation (with a lot automated and done by robots) will necessarily lead to the upturn in economic prosperity in the UK that has been the holy grail for politicians for the best part of 75 years. Lets see how things pan out!
Well argued and well written. You have condensed a book into an essay - perhaps you should reverse the process and self-publish on Amazon/Kindle.
Btw getting anywhere with TalkMarkets?
Haven't even started on Talk Markets. Been too many long shifts...
That's because you have plenty of drive.
An excellent essay.
The Lab-Con pact are a million miles from this as the move towards re-marrying the EU, complete with the EU Commission mandated economic punishment for not following orders.
The fact HM Gov let steel fall away - by implication it was not seen as a strategic asset - is treason. Ditto for other defence activities.
Reform need to ditch the Dear Leader (Mr F) and La Tice - two paper weights who have served their purpose and are now liabilities.
Let's not have the Dear Leader total yet another political movement.
Reform did and does have the capability to make a difference.
Such common sense, intelligence and knowledge distilled here. How are you driving a truck, rather than sitting in no.11 Downing Street instead of the ideologically blind muppet currently ensconced there? 🤦🏼♀️
That's a very long story. The job market for over 60 ex CEOs is rotten