Suck It Up Nigel

It was Farage's leadership of Reform that led to Restore's creation. The newer party is becoming the Teal Tories' nemesis and that is a good thing.

The temperature is rising in Makerfield and tempers are fraying. It’s not climate change; it’s the UK’s old, failed political order melting as economic and social realties collide with a quarter century of political theories and elitism. For the first time in a century or so, the electorate for a Westminster constituency has a plurality of candidates. Voters can consider candidates’ character and experience, as well as the policies of the party that they represent or are aligned to. This crucial aspect of selecting a Member of Parliament was lost in the noise of shoddy marketing as the major, old parties posed as the solution to everything.

There are, or were, some seats where a donkey with the appropriate rosette would be elected. Broadly, northern working class constituencies voted Labour; southern shires plus the less industrial bits of the north went Tory. The West Country went Lib Dem (to be different), as did various odd or self-regarding places in the rest of the UK. Scotland went SNP and, until this year, Wales voted Labour, never Tory.

The key skill for a wannabe politician was therefore to get selected for a safe seat, usually achieved by overt keenness and a lot of brownnosing to get a shot at a marginal or unwinnable seat. A decent performance there, plus more brownnosing, some patronage or nepotism (ideally both) and a bit of backstabbing would then get the ambitious wannabe into a safe seat. The electorate wasn’t involved and party members in constituencies seldom had wide discretion. The House of Commons slowly declined from several hundred MPs who put the interests of their constituents first to an array of toadies who can only recite the party line (particularly if some helpful researcher writes their speech for them, or ChatGPT does). The interests of their career trump addressing the problems of their constituents.

The political map changed after the Brexit referendum. The “red wall” started to crumble as Labour Brexiters (of whom there are plenty, outside Westminster) saw that Corbyn’s offering was weak and voted for Boris. Boris’s army of toady incompetents failed to deliver (and worse). It’s now apparent that the entire system of government, nominally led by the House of Commons, is rotten to the core. It’s not just Brussels that stinks; Westminster is a foetid swamp of egos, spite, failed ambition and jellyfish in jobs requiring a backbone.

This decay was confirmed in 2024 when Richard Tice’s Reform got eight votes for every seven that the Liberal Democrats did but just five seats to the Liberal Democrats’ 72. The pre-Farage Reform campaigned on the premise that the government system was screwing the voter. It played well on the streets (I know; I was pounding them myself), and it attracted people from across the political spectrum – apart from the progressives and the careerists. The result proved the theory.

Farage’s return was (arguably) a boost to the campaign, although it was well underway before he came out of retirement. Post-election, he set about “professionalising” the party, which started with cancelling the manifesto Reform had stood on and campaigned for. He went on to recruit Zia Yusuf as the party chair. (A strange choice, the banker turned tech multi-millionaire is young and has never stood for election – usually political chairs have experience and credibility). Zia failed to prevent or remedy the breach with Rupert Lowe. Reform’s actions since the bust-up have been disgraceful, vindictive, petty and personal. Rather than being cowed by the assaults, Rupert Lowe stood by his principles and set up a new party, Restore. At the time of writing, it has more members than the Liberal Democrats.

Now we have the spectacle of Nigel Farage whining in the Mail (and anywhere else that he can get published) that Restore will split the anti-Burnham vote and only Reform can save the country from that. Farage can huff and puff, pontificate and sneer (not his most attractive line) and whinge as much as he likes. It won’t alter the fact that it was his party’s actions – in which he was, as leader, complicit at the least – that led to Restore being founded.

Under Farage, Reform focused on how to win power and concluded it is best done by recruiting disgruntled Tories. Perhaps, but Reform’s conversion from political iconoclast to teal Tories contributed to its pathetic performance in the Senedd elections (as did rotten candidate selection, as I wrote here). Restore (in its Great Yarmouth Party guise) hammered Reform in the Council elections. For every person who voted Reform, two voted Restore. It may be a small battle in the grand scheme of British political warfare, but it’s telling.

Here’s another stat: when I announced on my Reform Facebook page that I was switching to Restore, fewer than 100 of my over 10,000 followers complained. Many say they have followed me to Restore. I see some of them at the Restore branch meetings, which are rather better attended and more fun than the Reform ones. I know of no one who has left Restore for Reform.

Of course, Reform survived my departure. I was replaced by an ambitious Tory defector; therein lies Reform’s failure – it has been subsumed by the political establishment and therefore has no hope of challenging it. Put simply, Reform is interested in seizing power by whatever means possible (very much like Streeting and Burnham). Restore exists to fix this country, which starts with dismantling the incompetent state. We anticipate abuse and obstruction, but we’re thick-skinned. And determined. And highly competent.

Farage’s diatribes postulate that only Reform can save the country from Burnham. Clearly if Burnham loses, his leadership aspiration is on hold. That still leaves Streeting, Rayner, Miliband and (probably) Torsten Bell. They share a surfeit of ambition, a shortage of ability and a lifetime career inside the toxic Westminster bubble; they make Starmer look good.

Burnham is unlikely to win a big majority in the strongly Brexit, long-time Labour seat. Few people like being the platform for the naked ambition of a talentless self-publicist. Scraping a seat in the House of Commons would be a disastrous start for the (self-styled) king of the north’s leadership campaign. Every vote that isn’t for Burnham damages him. Restore’s canvassing in Makerfield has now covered the entire constituency (some 40,000 homes with 76,000 voters) and shows the race very close. They also note that their support base includes people who haven’t voted for years. This impacts the polling companies’ models; the widely publicised Survation poll that placed Restore at 7% extrapolated from a mere 500 adults and is statistically risible.

It’s a little presumptive for Farage to think that only Burnham can win the leadership contest; politics is a dirty game and there are many (apparently) in the Parliamentary Labour Party who don’t think this is the time for a contest. While Burnham pounds the Makerfield pavements, you can be sure that the Starmer machine is working overtime to deny him the 81 Labour MP signatures the nomination papers require. Even then Burnham must beat Starmer and anyone else who can garner the 81 signatures. The process is long, and opportunities for mishaps, backstabbing and shafting abound. Burnham can’t be that confident; he hasn’t yet resigned as Manchester mayor (salary £114,000 – more than an MP but less than a PM).

Farage’s Reform has a problem with its messaging. It campaigned in Wales along the lines of ‘Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer’. It failed. Now in Makerfield he’s calling for people to vote Reform to prevent Andy Burnham (the person deemed most likely to topple Starmer) from getting to Westminster. What has changed in Reform thinking in just two months?

His call for Restore voters to vote Reform is utterly tone deaf; Restore only exists because of the deficiencies of Reform and the toxic actions of Nigel and his henchmen. He chose that path – no one else. Since Nigel’s return, Reform has lost Rupert Lowe, two chairmen, several Westminster by-elections and the Senedd elections. It may be flush with money (vital now that it occupies two floors of Millbank), but it’s losing members to Restore. There is now a distinct possibility that Reform will be beaten by Restore in Makerfield.

Farage and Reform are under pressure; a party whose leader makes bad decisions and then doubles down on them is unstable. There is a blackout on why David Bull is no longer party chairman. He was brought in to shore up relations between the centre and the members after Zia Yusuf had a hissy fit and resigned. Bull didn’t repair much of the damage done by Yusuf’s regime. I can’t see the latest chair, veteran MP and general bruiser Lee Anderson building bridges or charming egos and donors. Reform is not a happy ship.

Farage reckons he gets about 70% of his decisions right. That sounds reasonable, possibly even humble for a political overachiever (and Nigel Farage is certainly that) until you note that the best KC in the country presented with the strongest possible case to argue will never rate his chances above 70%. Why? Because those are the statistics; funny things happen in Court. Bad things are happening in Reform; they have been for some time and it’s not funny.

There will be a lot of noise, much poison and a lot of cant from Reform between now and polling day on 18th June. (Restore doesn’t trust the press, so won’t often talk to them). The Makerfield electorate are blessed with a number of candidates with a range of ambitions, track records and affiliations. I’m confident that they will make an informed choice.

Whoever they elect is joining Parliament under unfortunate circumstances at a tricky time for the country, the Prime Minister, most political parties and (most important for whoever is elected) the people of Makerfield. We must trust that they chose wisely.

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