Nothing to Celebrate for Anyone on Victory Day

Wise politicians don't cause wars...

The 9th of May is Victory Day in Russia. It celebrates Germany’s surrender at the end of the Great Patriotic War, as Russians call World War Two. The fighting killed some 25 million Soviet Citizens, including 5 to 7 million Ukrainians - around 15% to 20% of their then population. By comparison the British lost fewer than 500 thousand, about 1% of the population. Even in the First World War we lost 800 thousand, some 2% of the population. In the UK we simply have no conception of casualties at this scale.

While the UK hasn’t been invaded since 1066, from 1941-45 the Soviet Union (including Ukraine) played host to a massive, devastating, armoured wars – as well as countless Nazi Atrocities. Villages, towns and cities were obliterated. In the UK Remembrance Day is rightly a large and solemn occasion in the UK. Imagine what it would be like had we suffered a similar proportion of dead. Imagine every village war memorial with three times as many names on it, with a church either rebuilt or repaired, still showing the scars of war. Imagine your local town remodelled along the lines of Stalingrad in 1943. That’s the Russian and Ukrainian memory.

If ever there were two countries that knew the appalling cost of war it’s Ukraine and Russia. The fact that they’re going at it hammer and tongs against each other is a supremely depressing reflection of human nature. Of course, it wasn’t supposed to be like this. The Special Military Operation was intended to be a coup de main, over in a couple of days with Kiev seized, Zelensky evacuated and Ukrainian forces surrendered. It didn’t turn out like that – wars seldom go to plan, particularly ones that are supposed to be quick. Rather than victory parades Russia and Ukraine are now locked into a war of attrition, now in its third year.

While some seek to dehumanise the Russians as Orcs, the reality is far more nuanced. Many Ukrainians have Russian family, and vice versa. Some 70 % of Ukrainians speak Russian. Until last year Ukraine too celebrated victory over the Nazis on 9th May. (Last year the celebration was moved to the 8th.) This is a war that neither side wanted but neither side can lose as both see it as existential.

The master rule of war is not to come second. So Russia and Ukraine will be remembering its dead and collectively themselves up for further supreme efforts. The Russians seem to be winning the war of attrition; as Ukraine’s supply of ammunition (smart and dumb) diminishes Russian ground forces are starting to advance, but unless they can achieve a breakthrough the Ukrainians will continue to exact a heavy price for every kilometre advanced. Might this be the year of the conclusive engagement. Will Putin achieve peace through superior firepower? Or will the $60 billion recently released by the US save the Ukrainians?

Translating that $60 million into ammunition in front line soldiers’ magazines and tank turrets will take time; until then Ukrainian Armed Forces are out gunned and outnumbered, which means the Russians will advance. Whether The Russians can advance quickly enough to break through is unknowable. By being on the defensive the Ukrainians have the option to thin out forces in the front, using the released manpower do dig further defensive lines and to amass reserves to counter Russian penetrations – if they come. They must also rotate the forces through the front lines – enduring bombardments leads to battleshock, and that can lead to collapse, which in turn can escalate into a breakthrough.

Capturing well established positions is expensive in terms of casualties and ammunition consumption. The logistics of advancing are challenging. Getting guns, ammunition and reinforcements forward quickly enough to maintain momentum is difficult and dependent upon excellent staff work and low level leadership. That’s even more the case in the age of the drone and ATACMS missiles – convoy of artillery pieces and ammunition wagons are hard to disguise and make inviting targets. Lose the artillery or it’s ammunition and the advance halts. That gives the Ukrainian armed forces time to regroup and establish the next line of defence.

This sort of battle of attrition is a meat grinder for both sides. In any one engagement the odds favour the defence, who can fight from the cover of trenches, bunkers, mines and wire – all of which the attackers must overcome while being shot at. The Russians are having to fight the battle of the Somme every day. (The ground may be harder, but that makes explosives more lethal). Without armour, this battle will go on until either one side’s morale cracks (due to lack of ammunition or massive casualties). The pressure on morale is greater on the defender; without strong, wise leadership and excellent administration the effects of battleshock can become contagious. Deciding when to withdraw is a key skill – politically motivated exhortation to fight for every metre are a route to disaster – ask any German Panzer General from the Eastern Front.

So far the Russians have failed to make an armoured breakthrough, although they may have tried and failed. They must try again. However to succeed they will have to gather far more than just one battalion. Despite their horrendous losses the Russians probably still have sufficient armour. What they might lack is the trained commanders and staff work necessary to coordinate tanks, infantry, artillery, air defence, electronic warfare, engineers and logistics – all of which must work in synchronous harmony to succeed.

That’s not just a problem for the Russians. If the Russians do penetrate the Ukrainian defensive lines the Ukrainians will have to counterattack. That will necessarily be an armoured operation as it will need to move rapidly across a contested battlefield, so it too will need the all-arms coordination that the Russians appear to struggle with. Much of the western kit that the Ukrainians have was specifically designed for precisely this sort of operation in the Cold War. Unfortunately that ended in 1991; few of the western officers who have been training the Ukrainian Armed Forces have much experience of the practicalities of armoured warfare – a skill the British lost with the peace dividend.

In summary, Russia has the military industrial complex and thence superior firepower. It’s kit and tactics may be crude and it might be taking horrendous casualties, but that is the Russian style of warfare. If they keep going the Ukrainians might eventually crack.

Ukraine has some better kit and the significant battlefield advantages of defending. It’s dependent on the whim a crop of particularly low-grade and weak western politicians for its weaponry and logistics. Its recruiting pool is smaller than the Russian one. Ukraine can’t win by being on the defensive. What they have to do is inflict horrific battlefield casualties on the Russians, then withdraw and repeat until Russian battlefield strength is so reduced that the Ukrainians can advance. That hasn’t happened yet.

For westerners the most depressing thing is the utter failure of diplomacy, the complete ineffectiveness of sanctions and the fact that most of the world doesn’t care or share the western view. As we now belatedly rearm, which can only come at the cost of social services, we should reflect on the consequences of foreign policy failure. Visit a war memorial or a military cemetery in Flanders. Peace through superior firepower (which is how you win wars) comes at an appalling human price. Wise politicians know this; the benches of the Houses of Parliament are scant cause for comfort.

Noone has much to celebrate on Thursday 9th (or Wednesday 8th).