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Andrew Marsh's avatar

The automotive sector is damaged by the inability of the Westminster set to access the EU27 market without re-joining the EU. Then along comes the DfT home spun 6th form debating society result of enforced BEV sales, complete with fines for under or over shooting the targets. It is one of the silliest laws ever written.

The automotive business knows profitability looks like this:

1. Pure internal combustion engine power

2. Addition of mild hybrid to an internal combustion engine (least on-cost for eco movement)

3. Addition of hybrid drive to an internal combustion engine) most effective way to meet Euro VI tail pipe emissions)

4. Addition of larger battery with external charge facility hybrid ('plug-in hybrid'). This is not efficient, and at least equals or exceeds the cost of the internal combustion engine.

5. Pure electric power - which is built at break-even cost since China, source of 80 per cent of all Lithium-ion batteries and materials to make such batteries - inflate prices for foreigners. See EU / China tariff dispute, where China domestic manufacturers boasted about 30 per cent margins on low cost BEVs.

So, most manufacturers who need to make a profit would prefer option 1, can cope with option 2 and can live with option 3. Oh, and Euro VII / Euro 7 (yes, it has two names) is dead on arrival.

Tesla? Well, that company has never published the capital expenditure, so who knows if any profit was ever made.....

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Rafe Champion's avatar

We can argue about the Capacity Factor, 40-45 is about it, before they get older and wear out, on land it is 30% in Australia.

But that is really beside the point, it is the wind droughts that kill wind power and windless nights that kill RE tout court.

When are people going to demand answers from the meteorologists who never warned you about wind droughts Dunkelflautes that must have been familiar to mariners and millers for centuries.

https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf

A warning from The Energy Realists of Australia

Around the Western world subsidised and mandated wind and solar power is displacing conventional power in the electricity supply. Consequently most of the grids in the west are moving towards a tipping point where the lights will flicker at nights when the wind is low.

The root of the problem is the failure of the meteorologists to give warning of wind droughts and the failure of energy planners to check the wind supply.

Consider the ABC of intermittent energy generated by wind and sun.

A. Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.

B. The continuity of RE is broken on nights with little or no wind.

C. There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.

So the green transition is impossible with current storage technology.

The rate of progress towards the tipping point will be accelerated by the surge of demand due to AI.

In Australia the transition to unreliable wind and solar power has hit the wall because we have reached the point where we can’t afford to lose any more coal capacity or the lights will flicker every night when the wind is low!

https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/

Britain, Germany and South Australia have passed the tipping point and entered a red zone, keeping the lights on precariously with imports and deindustrialization to reduce demand.

Demand urgent high-level inquiries to find out why the meteorologists failed in their professional duties and how energy planners managed to get away with out checking the wind supply. Imagine embarking on a major irrigation project without forensic investigation of the water supply including historical rainfall figures.

https://quadrant.org.au/news-opinions/climate-change/no-gusts-no-glory/

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